I’ve been writing the posts for this blog since May 2016 and
have broken down my market results data in fairly statistical fashion—it must
be the ol’ scientific training coming to the fore. Various patterns emerge from
data, this is how we observe the subtler workings of the world around us, and I
have noticed some trends worth discussing, especially for benefit of anyone
considering getting into the field at this time.
It would be fair to say that any particular endeavour which
requires one to mesh with the workings of society in general is likely to
reflect the issues and mechanisms of society in one way or another. This is
somewhat perplexing from the standpoint of writing, especially speculative
fiction, as the field divorces itself thematically from the real world much of
the time. Yet it must also reflect something of that world to find resonance
with its readership, and writers could do nothing worse than write in a vacuum.
But, all creativity aside, marketing one’s work is an entirely different area, calling
for thorough meshing with society, and in this the influences of the “real
world” become painfully apparent.
Every writer is familiar with rejection. I have posted on
this subject in the past with regard to how a writer copes with being turned
away. Nothing has changed in that regard, but circumstances are “pushing the envelope”
as pilots used to say. It seems like the “nos” are piling up at an
unprecedented rate these days, and I checked my figures to see to what degree I
was imagining it.
I’m not. I keep a record of how many days elapse and how
many rejections accumulate between acceptances, and if this is any sort of
metric for the state of the market, the market is in deep trouble—and by
implication, so are writers.
The pattern I observed over a couple of years was simple
enough: a “long period” acceptance (defined as 10, 20 or more days) followed by
two or three short-period acceptance (0-15 days or thereabouts), then back to a
long-period wait. This reflected never less than fifty-something submissions in
play, sometimes over sixty, and supported 32 acceptances in 2017, and 26 in
2018.
About September 2018 I noticed a significant downturn in
rate of acceptance, and compensated by working my endeavour harder. In the
early months of 2019 I raised my submission volume by about a third and now
have never less than eighty-something submissions in play. This automatically
means there will be proportionally more rejections in any given period, I
understood and accepted this from the beginning, but the numbers are saying
something else.
My submission rate has risen by one third, but my rejection
rate is now double what it was just
three months ago, and is still
accelerating. That really is the bottom line—it is now much harder to match
stories to markets than it was a year ago, let alone three years ago when I
began.
Why should this be so? The obvious answer is that the world
has gone downhill in the last three years and the economic structures have
flowed down to street level. The first thing that goes by the board is leisure
spending, and indulging in fictional escapism is fully as much a leisure
activity as watching a movie or going to a pub; it is also less popular than
either, so there is no real surprise that the publishing field is suffering.
I’m sure there are many statistics out there to be mined, but from my own observations
I can make some simple inferences. I began submitting in January 2016 and since
then, and just amongst the group of outlets to which I have submitted, twenty-three markets have closed! These
include professional market-leaders such as Fantastic
Stories of the Imagination, Apex and Orson
Scott Card’s Intergalactic Medicine Show. Every publisher has a very good
reason for retiring from the game, few do so willingly, and while it is true
that new publishers have launched new markets (DreamForge, Legendary, Space and Time and so forth) it is an
inescapable conclusion that the marketplace is tighter, harder and less
forgiving for publishers. They are obviously not selling enough copies to make
it attractive to continue, and in some cases new publishers have bankrolled
their early editions to the tune of several thousand dollars in the faith that
sales will pick up and their enterprise will become solvent.
For writers this means a shrinking marketplace, especially
where seasoned, well-established outlets are concerned, and consequently
greater competition. At this time The
Bronzeville Bee, for instance, turns away eighty stories for every one they
buy, and it is quite usual for an anthology to receive a thousand submissions
or more, from which to select ten or twenty. Result: a lot of disappointed
writers, less ability than ever to make any kind of living from writing, and
ever greater headaches for publishers who battle gamely on in the face of a
reading public whose leisure dollars are more and more often required for
necessities.
So the downturn in publishing can be laid at the door of
austerity, capitalism gone mad, whatever you want to call it, the diversion of
capital from the general public to the elite. Without getting political, we
live in the real world and are subject to its tides and pressures, and can do
very little about it other than hone our craft ever sharper, keep the faith and
work harder, as everyone is always exhorted to. I hope to get my submissions up
over a hundred by branching into other genres, such as mystery, trying for a
bite of that particular cherry. And above all, maintain the perhaps pathetic
belief that better times will come and, when they do, publishing will resurge
and take we writers up with it.
I’ve seen diminishing returns over the last three years in
terms of total numbers of placements over time, yet maintained the same
relative income in the last two years, so the average value of acceptances has indeed
increased. In addition, come September, the US professional rate is going up by
a third, and when lucky enough to score a pro placement this will be very good
on the exchange rate. So I’ll stay on the horse and pursue my career, and
hopefully in a year will be posting some more positive observations.
Now, I must post this and go work on a story…
Cheers, Mike Adamson
